صحيفة عبرية تكشف عن “السيناريو الأخطر” الذي يهدد إسرائيل..
قال المحلل الإسرائيلي في صحيفة “يديعوت أحرنوت” العبرية يوسي يهوشع: إنه يجب على الجيش الإسرائيلي الاستعداد لسيناريو نشوب حرب في الشمال، معتبرًا أنها “السيناريو الأخطر” الذي يهدد إسرائيل.
وأوضح يهوشع في المقال الافتتاحي للصحيفة، أنه كان يتعيّن على رئيس الحكومة بنيامين نتنياهو قبل شن الحرب الأخيرة على قطاع غزة أن يُخرج لحيّز التنفيذ تحصين المنازل التي لا تتمتع بتحصين كافٍ، وبالتوازي مع خطة رئيس الأركان أفيف كوخافي متعددة السنوات (تنوفا)، والتأكد من أن خطة المشتريات لبطاريات القبة الحديدية، وصواريخ الاعتراض، والسلاح وإقامة العائق الأرضي في الشمال، كل هذا لم يحصل حتى الآن، وهذه مسؤولية نتنياهو”، وفق تعبيره.
وأشار يهوشع إلى أن الفصائل الفلسطينية بغزة أطلقت خلال الحرب الأخيرة أكثر من 4 آلاف صاروخ على إسرائيل، “وهذه فقط هي 10% من قدرات حزب الله في الجبهة الشمالية التي يستعد لها الجيش الإسرائيلي”، لافتًا إلى أن الأمين العام لحزب الله حسن نصر الله هدد بأن “المس بالقدس سيجرنا إلى حرب إقليمية”.
ويشير التقدير الاستخباري الإسرائيلي، إلى أن “حزب الله منشغل بالمشاكل الاقتصادية الداخلية ولن يفتح حربًا”، وعلق المحلل الإسرائيلي على ذلك بقوله: “لكن في الحملة الأخيرة؛ تعلمنا أنه لا يمكن التعويل بشكل مطلق على تقدير الاستخبارات بالنسبة لنوايا العدو، وبالتالي يجب الاستعداد للسيناريو الأخطر”.
واعتبر يهوشع أنه “من الواجب وصف الفجوات القائمة بشكل دقيق، ونشير إلى تلك التي لم تُعالج على مدى السنين والتي كانت كلها تحت قيادة رئيس الوزراء”، موضحًا أن “الحاجة العملياتية الفورية ليست فقط لملئ المخازن بصواريخ الاعتراض للقبة الحديدية وبالسلاح الدقيق للطائرات القتالية، وبذلك سد البطن التي نشأت في الحملة، بل أيضًا زيادتها بشكل واضح”.
وأضاف أن “هيئة الأركان أجرت هذا الأسبوع مداولات في موضوع استخلاص الدروس من الحملة والمعاني الناشئة عن الحرب في جبهتين، وبات من الواضح بما فيه الكفاية في ضوء المجريات، أن الحاجة العملياتية العاجلة للتسلح كان ينبغي أن تخرج لحيز التنفيذ منذ زمن بعيد”.
وتابع: “في نهاية العملية، يفترض بالجيش أن يكون جاهزًا مع خطة دفاع جوي إقليمي دائمة للشمال، مثلما توجد للجنوب، وكذا ينبغي أن يكون أيضًا من خط الشارون وحتى خط الحدود الشمالية”.
وزعم المحلل الإسرائيلي أن “الاستثمار بصواريخ الاعتراض؛ هو استثمار اقتصادي حكيم من جانب إسرائيل؛ فكل صاروخ كهذا منع ضرر سقوط لصاروخ وتعويضات كبيرة من ضريبة الأملاك؛ كان يمكن لها أن تصل لعشرات كثيرة من مليارات الشواكل، لذا التسلح بمبلغ أقل من مليار شيكل لو كان تم، كان سيوفر ضررًا مستقبليًا”، على حد قوله.
وقال يهوشع: إن “هناك مشكلة هامة؛ هي بناء العائق الأرضي في الشمال، فالسياج يجب أن يعزز كي يمنع بقدر الإمكان تسلل قوات برية لحزب الله إلى المستوطنات، ولإقامة هذا العائق لا توجد ميزانية حتى الآن، وكلفته في المستوى الأساس تبلغ نحو ملياري شيكل”.
ولفت إلى أن “للجيش الإسرائيلي دروسًا أخرى من الحملة، تستوجب تسلحًا سريعًا بالحساسات لسلاح الاستخبارات وبطائرات مسيرة، ويمكن التقدير بأنه بمبلغ خمسة مليارات شيكل، يمكن إغلاق الثغرات الفورية، وهذا أمر الساعة”، منوهًا إلى أنه “في الجانب الهجومي للجيش الإسرائيلي، توجد آلاف الأهداف باتجاه حزب الله، نحو خمسة أضعاف ما كان لها تجاه حماس، وسلاح الجو لن يعمل بشكل موضعي مثلما في غزة، بل بعدوانية ليس فقط تجاه أهداف المنظمة بل تجاه دولة لبنان”.
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